Winds of Change

                                                           Winds of Change

What is it about winds of change? Well, for one, it signifies a force, that uproots and transforms the structure opposing it. Used famously by Harold Mcmillan in the 1960s, and made popular by the Scorpions, this phrase perhaps signifies the current transition happening in North Africa, notably the Arab regimes of North Africa and its repercussions on the entire Middle East and for democracy in the region.

“The wind of change
Blows straight into the face of time
Like a storm wind that will ring the freedom bell
For peace of mind”

Alert: Slightly long post!
A movement led by youths, with a networking through social networking sites, and in the absence of a visible leader, this movement seemed to have taken the world media off guards. With the exception of Al- Jazeera, none of the Western media were quick to cover it, and even when they did so, it was not covered extensively. Tunisia’s so called ‘jasmine revolution’ was set into motion by the self immolation of a frustrated graduate, and has set into motion events that have completely changed the political landscape of the country. Although remnants of the old guard still hang on, it is clear that things cannot remain the same, at least not for now.

Tunisia’s protests and its subsequent results set off protests in neighbouring Algeria as well, where Abdelaziz Bouteflika got the constitution amended in 2008 to continue in office for a third term. However, the protests there have been quietened by the authorities. Similar has been the fate of protests in Yemen. Similarly, Morocco, which has a monarchy, and also considerably more oil wealth than Tunisia, thus allowing it to take some pre-emptive measures to contain the possible domino effect, has been spared protests as of now, while Libya is still under the iron grip of Colonel Gaddafi.

However, unlike all these countries, Egypt was always likely to receive the direct effect of Zine Ben Ali’s departure. Egypt has long been a Western ally, and the first Arab nation to recognise Israel. Hence, despite his abysmal track record on democracy, freedom of speech and economic reforms, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has long been described as a key Western ally, and the US has rewarded Egypt with billions of dollars in military aid.  However, Egypt has been in a state of emergency since the assassination of Anwar Sadat in 1981, and opposition parties were allowed in the polls only in 2005, in a ‘far from free’ elections, and the main credible opposition ‘Muslim brotherhood’ is still banned. The State’s economy seems to be in the hands of an elite few, and discontent is rife. Hence, it was just a matter of time before people had enough.

However, no one believed it would happen so soon and Mubarak has ridden out previous protests to his regime. However, this time there has been the added element of confidence and belief among the people, provided by the ousting of the Tunisian President, coupled with the coverage in world and local Arab media. the world's eyes are centred in Cairo, Alexandria and Suez and thus the extra-ordinary has become ordinary. 

Mubarak is publicly defiled and defied, the headquarters of his party are in flames and Mubarak’s son; his supposed heir has fled to London. Mubarak himself appeared on TV, sacked his cabinet, and has appointed a deputy for the first time in 30 years. On the grounds, he seems to be fast running out of options.The army has refused to fire on the people, describing it as their legitimate right to protest, while anything short of his ouster does not cut ice with the protesters. It seems, all that was necessary was a catalyst, and the confidence among people, that the unthinkable can be accomplished.

However, the West is still bolstering support for Mubarak by giving their public the fear of an Islamic government in Cairo and Mubarak seems unlikely to voluntarily relinquish his hold on office, trying to use various mechanisms to buy time. However, the mood of the Egyptian streets seems to be against any compromise of any sorts and they want an end to his dictatorship. If Mubarak is forced out, which is emerging as a distinct possibility, this could very well be the catalyst for protests to resurface in other countries, most notably Algeria and Yemen and the repercussions will no doubt be felt in the entire Middle East. Maybe, for nations like Saudi Arabia, with its monarchy, oil wealth, and the almost blanket control of the media, it might take some time. But there is no refuting the present: disaffected youth have found a way to get their voice across using a clever mix of social media and the traditional media, to find confidence in numbers and the flow of information, thus allowing them to challenge the existing political dictatorship in a spontaneous challenge, rather than a pre-planned one.

What has emerged is the winds of change, presently sweeping the Maghreb, perhaps creating a void in terms of power structure, but definitely heralding the coming of a new era, where fooling the people could be a lot more tougher for the leaders. It is time, the West stopped its supports for despots and dictators, and acted for direct democracy, rather than paying lip service to it in the name of ‘gradual democracy.’

Its time for change:

“Take me to the magic of the moment 

On a glory night 

Where the children of tomorrow share their dreams 

With you and me”

Lyrics from 'Winds of Change' by Scorpions, taken from here.